Forecasts are not promises, but they do tell you where the smart institutional money expects the gains to concentrate. For 2026 to 2030, the message from the major forecasters is consistent and, for anyone buying in the right places, encouraging.
The national numbers
Savills expects UK house prices to grow around 2% in 2026, accelerating to roughly 5% a year in 2028 and 2029, for cumulative growth close to 25% by 2030. That is a moderate, stabilising market rather than a speculative one, which is healthy. Booms are followed by corrections. Steady growth compounds.
The number that actually matters: the regional split
The national average is an average of two very different markets. Knight Frank puts cumulative London growth at around 13.6% to 2030. Savills and others have Northern regions at 20% to 25% over the same window. That is close to double the capital, and it is the single most important fact for a UK investor deciding where to deploy.
The reason is affordability. London and the South East are bumping against the ceiling of what local incomes can service. The North and Midlands have headroom, deep rental demand, and regeneration pipelines that keep pulling people and jobs in.
City by city
Manchester remains our largest conviction. JLL's five-year forecast has the city around 31% cumulative price growth, and Manchester has been one of the fastest growing city populations in the country since 2011. Our Greengate and Ancoats stock, Obsidian, Berkeley Square and the Waterhouse Gardens masterplan, sits exactly where that growth concentrates.
Birmingham is forecast to grow 5% to 7% in the year to mid-2026, supported by HS2 regeneration and one of the largest student and graduate populations outside London.
Liverpool stays a yield play. Entry prices remain low, rental demand is strong, and the gross yields are among the best in the country.
Leeds, Sheffield, Newcastle and Nottingham all continue to draw investor capital for the same combination of affordability and demand.
What this means for how you buy
If your objective is capital growth over five years, the data says buy in the regional cities, not the South. If your objective is yield, the same answer holds for different reasons. London's role in a portfolio today is liquidity and prestige, not return, and our few London developments are selected on that basis rather than as growth bets.
None of this is a reason to buy indiscriminately. Within every one of these cities there are postcodes we will not touch and buildings we underwrite and reject. The regional case is the starting point, not the decision.
If you want to see the specific developments we are placing capital in across Manchester, Birmingham and Liverpool right now, browse our current investments, or speak to the team for the underwriting behind each one.
