UK Real Estate Market: In-Depth Analysis with Rob Smith

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UK Property Trends: Expert Insights from Rob Smith of Hunters & Whitegates

In the latest update on UK property trends for the week ending Sunday, 9th June 2024, Rob Smith, the CEO of Hunters & Whitegates, provides a comprehensive analysis. He covers current trends and figures in detail.

Key Headlines: UK Property Trends

Rising House Prices
House prices in June 2024 have seen a notable increase of 6.34% compared to January 2024.

Increased Listings
There has been a 23% rise in listings compared to the previous week, largely attributed to a rebound following the Bank Holiday weekend. The current number of UK listings stands at 36,000, showing a year-to-date (YTD) increase of 9.1% compared to 2023 and an 8% rise over the YTD figures from 2017 to 2019.

Total Gross Sales
Gross sales have reached 26,893 for the week, up from 24,712 during the same week in 2023. This represents a 10.1% YTD increase compared to 2023 and a 6% increase over the 2017 to 2019 average.

Net Sales
Net sales for the week are 20,575, which is 14.7% higher than the previous week, again influenced by the Bank Holiday effect. This figure is also 6% higher than the seven-year average from 2017 to 2023.

Sale Fall-Throughs
The rate of sale fall-throughs remains steady, with just over one in five sales not completing.

Detailed Market Analysis (Week 23)

New Properties on the Market

The UK witnessed 38,114 new property listings. This brings the YTD total to 814,838, which is 12.5% higher than the eight-year YTD average of 724,319. It is also 7.9% higher than the YTD figures from 2017 to 2019 and 9.1% higher than the YTD total for 2023.

Price Reductions

Last week, 23,889 properties had their prices reduced. This is a significant number compared to the eight-year Week 23 average of 16,438. On average, 1 in 6.21 properties sees a price reduction each month, compared to the long-term average of 1 in 9.9.

Average Asking Price for Reduced Properties: £423,882

Gross Sales

Last week, buyers purchased a total of 26,893 properties subject to contract (STC).

Accumulative Gross Sales YTD: The YTD total of gross sales stands at 562,076, surpassing the average of 524,394 from 2017 to 2019 and the total of 510,746 for the same week in 2023.

Average Asking Price of Sold STC Properties: The average asking price for properties sold STC remains in the mid-range of £360,000 to £380,000, with the current figure at £375,992. This range has been consistent for the past two years.

Sale Fall-Throughs

There has been a gradual increase in sale fall-throughs over the past two months, with the latest figure at 6,318. Despite this, the rise in sales and the percentage rate of fall-throughs are more critical metrics to observe.

Sale Fall-Through Percentage Rate:
There has been a slight dip in the fall-through percentage rate to 22.5% for week 23, down from the previous week’s figures. For context, the average over the last three months was 21.82%, while the long-term eight-year average stands at 24.8%. This is a significant improvement from the over 40% fall-through rate seen in Q4 2022.

Net Sales: UK Property Trends

Net sales for the week reached 20,575, which is 7.7% higher than the 2024 YTD average of 19,096.

Accumulative Net Sales YTD:
The total net sales for the year stand at 439,199, which is 4.9% higher than the YTD average for 2017 to 2019 (418,485) and 11.2% higher than the YTD figure for 2023.

House Prices Per Square Foot

House prices in June 2024 have hit a record £352 per square foot. For comparison, prices were £348 per square foot in May 2024, £344 in April 2024, £339 in March 2024 and February 2024, and £331 in January 2024. This marks a 6.34% increase in house prices since January 2024.

Importance of £/Sq.Ft Metric

Monitoring the £ per square foot metric is crucial because there is a 92% correlation between the changes in £/sq.ft at sale agreed and the Land Registry data five months later. This high correlation (with a Pearson correlation coefficient of +0.92) suggests a very strong positive relationship, indicating that as the £/sq.ft figure increases, the Land Registry figures also rise significantly.

Local Market Focus: Bury

This week’s local focus is on Bury, providing insights into the specific trends and figures affecting this area.

Bury has experienced similar trends to the national market, with a noticeable increase in property prices and listings. Local agents report a robust demand for properties, contributing to the overall positive performance in the market.

The number of new property listings in Bury has seen a significant rise, mirroring the national trend of increased activity following the Bank Holiday weekend. This surge in listings indicates a healthy supply of new properties entering the market.

Bury has also observed a substantial number of price reductions. This trend aligns with the broader national data showing an increase in properties having their prices adjusted. However, despite these reductions, the overall market sentiment remains positive, with strong buyer interest.

Sales performance in Bury has been strong, with gross and net sales figures showing healthy growth. The average asking prices for properties sold STC in Bury align with the national averages, reflecting the area’s competitive market conditions.

The rate of sale fall-throughs in Bury is consistent with the national average, with just over one in five sales not completing. This steady rate suggests that while some transactions do not go through, the majority of deals are successfully closing.

Looking ahead, experts expect the property market in Bury to remain robust. Continued demand and a steady influx of new listings should support sustained activity in the market. Price adjustments will likely continue as the market balances supply and demand, but overall, Bury’s property market is poised for continued growth.

Conclusion: UK Property Trends

The UK property market continues to show resilience and growth, with notable increases in house prices, listings, and sales figures. Despite some fluctuations in sale fall-through rates, the overall market sentiment remains positive. Local markets, such as Bury, reflect these national trends, indicating widespread market health and activity.

Industry professionals can gain valuable insights into future trends by closely monitoring key metrics such as £ per square foot. Furthermore, this approach provides a predictive view of market movements. As the year progresses, the property market is expected to maintain its upward trajectory, driven by strong demand and a healthy supply of new listings.

Find out more about what’s happening in the property market in our News column.

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