HS2 Curzon Street will be Birmingham second city-centre station and the terminus of the Phase 1 High Speed Rail line to London. When it opens, journey time to Euston drops from 1 hour 22 minutes to 49 minutes, with 10 trains per hour at peak.

Current scheduled opening is between 2029 and 2033 depending on which delivery source you read. The question for investors: how much is already priced in, and what is the residual uplift from opening?

What has already moved

The Curzon Street immediate catchment (B4, the eastern half of B5) has seen 28% capital growth since 2020, roughly 10 points ahead of the broader Birmingham city-centre average of 18%. Paradise, Snow Hill Wharf and Brindley Drive all trade at premiums that partially reflect HS2 anticipation.

Rental growth tells a similar story. B5 rents have risen 22% over the same period, against a city-wide 15%. Demand has concentrated from the corporate relocation pipeline (HSBC North America HQ, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, PwC), not purely from the station anticipation.

What has not moved yet

Digbeth (B5 southern) and the wider Eastside quarter have seen less of the same uplift. Stock here is pricing 15 to 25% below comparable Colmore Row specification, and we believe the gap closes substantially once Curzon Street is operational. These are the postcodes where there is real residual value for 2026 buyers.

Perry Barr (B42, northern Birmingham) is a similar thesis. The Commonwealth Games Village delivered 968 homes and the transport upgrades that accompanied it have not yet filtered into pricing. Current entry prices are 30% below B5 equivalents.

The risk to the thesis

Delivery slippage. HS2 has already cost Birmingham one operational target (2026). If 2033 slides to 2036 or beyond, the residual uplift sits in investor pockets longer and the hold period extends correspondingly.

Political risk. Phase 2 of HS2 was cancelled in 2023. A further review cannot be ruled out if the 2029 general election changes government. Curzon Street as the permanent national terminus (not a temporary one pending extension northward) is the current working assumption, but not fully committed in legislation.

What we would buy into

Digbeth and Eastside one and two-bed off-plan, 2026 and 2027 completion. Target yields 6 to 6.5% gross, entry pricing £250,000 to £320,000.

Perry Barr selected completed stock. Yields 6.5 to 7.5% on sub-£220,000 entries.

B1 and B3 core Colmore Row stock is already fully priced for HS2 and we would not add at current levels unless the asset is exceptional.

If you would like the comparable rents and developer track record we are using, ask.