The question

"Should I buy off-plan or completed?" is the single most common question we get from first-time property investors. Both routes have passionate advocates. We decided to let our own data answer it.

The dataset

140 Red Cardinal transactions, 2019-2024:

  • 81 off-plan purchases (57%)
  • 59 completed-property purchases (43%)
  • All in our eight target cities
  • All still held as of Q4 2025 (we excluded any that had been flipped)

Capital growth: off-plan wins on average

Off-plan portfolio: Average 28.4% capital growth from exchange to current valuation over an average 3.8-year hold.

Completed portfolio: Average 18.1% capital growth over an average 4.1-year hold.

Off-plan outperformed completed by ~10 percentage points over the hold period. A meaningful gap — but the reasons matter.

Where the off-plan premium comes from

Breaking down the off-plan outperformance:

  • 5-8% launch-phase discount. Pre-launch buyers get 5-8% below resale pricing at completion.
  • 3-5% construction-period market uplift. Property values rise during the 18-36 months a scheme is under construction.
  • Location premium re-rating. Best-in-class new-build commands premium pricing in a way older stock does not.

The risks completed does not have

Off-plan comes with real risk that our dataset reflects:

  • Completion delays. 68% of our off-plan deals completed later than originally forecast (average 7 months late).
  • Developer risk. Two schemes failed during our dataset (2019 and 2021). Both returned clients capital but with 12-24 months of opportunity cost.
  • Specification drift. 3% of schemes delivered with lower-than-promised specifications.

Yield: completed wins on year-one income

Completed portfolio: Tenanted from month one. Average year-one gross yield: 6.4%.

Off-plan portfolio: Zero income during the 18-36 month construction period (unless staged payments). Once tenanted, average year-one gross yield: 5.8%.

If your investment thesis depends on near-term income, completed wins clearly.

The right answer depends on your profile

Off-plan works best for:

  • Higher-rate investors using tax structures that benefit from deferred income
  • Investors with 10+ year horizons
  • Portfolio builders adding diversification over time
  • Those who can absorb 6-12 months of delay risk without stress

Completed works best for:

  • Yield-led investors
  • Income replacement strategies
  • Retirement portfolio builders
  • First-time investors seeking certainty

Our current position

Across 2024-2025 our sourcing split was 58% off-plan / 42% completed. Slightly skewed toward off-plan because our client book leans portfolio-investor rather than first-time. For a new client the right mix depends entirely on their profile.

The caveats

This is 140 deals in one consultancy over one macro cycle (post-pandemic). The off-plan advantage may be cyclical — launch-phase discounts narrow in buyer-unfriendly markets. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.

The bottom line

Off-plan generates higher total returns on average but with higher variance and delayed income. Completed generates faster cashflow with lower capital upside. Neither is universally better — the right answer depends on your timeline, cashflow needs and risk appetite.

If we had to pick one sentence: off-plan for wealth-building, completed for income-building.